2023 Gains Projected
All is not lost for crypto in 2023 says well-known crypto analyst. He predicts the year could end up on a positive note.
In a new Youtube strategy session, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen tells his 780,000 subscribers that the crypto markets will likely dip in value before a recovery could take shape.
He uses a logarithmic regression chart of crypto’s market cap to show historical upper and lower bounds. He says the crypto market as a whole will likely either capitulate in a quick fashion or trend sideways in the coming months.
“I do think we will eventually get to that lower green trendline. Do we go down into it? Honestly, that’s what I would prefer, because I think it provides more opportunity. Of course, there’s always a chance we go sideways until we hit it. We’ve done that before.
If you look at 2015, it’s a good example of coming out of a year-long bear market and rather than going down into the trendline, we just went sideways until we hit it. Kind of the same thing in 2018. We got down here. We actually poked our head back above the fair value line, but we more or less just went sideways until we hit it and then the bull market began.
I don’t really think a sustained bull market is going to occur until we hit this lower green trend line again. Either we go down to it in short order or we go sideways long enough for it to slowly catch up.”
Looking at Cowen’s chart, he predicts a crypto market bottom around the second half of this year.
Cowen also says the market conditions in 2022 that made cash the stronger position will likely change this year as he expects crypto to present generational accumulation opportunities.
“The good thing is I do think 2023 will bring plenty of opportunities to get into the market. As you guys know in 2022, I’ve often said cash is king, stack cash…
I do think we’re going to have some pretty generational opportunities coming up so stay tuned for that.”
Second Half of 2023
In 2022, crypto delivered its worst performance since 2018, but investors are hoping 2023 will usher in a repeat of the 2019 market rebound.
Crypto exchange Bitbank projects Bitcoin prices will recover to between $20,000 and $50,000 in the second half of 2023, but only if the Federal Reserve can stop interest rate hikes by mid-2023 and begin cutting rates by early 2024.
VanEck analyst Matthew Sigel has predicted Bitcoin will recover to $30,000 in 2023, but warns it could remain in the $10,000 to $20,000 range in the first quarter of the year.
Standard Chartered has cautioned investors that crypto winter will extend into 2023, leading to more liquidity issues and bankruptcies, as well as further deterioration of investor confidence. Standard Chartered says Bitcoin prices could fall another 70% to around $5,000 in 2023.
Bank of America analyst Alkesh Shah says recent cryptocurrency price declines and bankruptcies have overshadowed the long-term thesis for digital assets and blockchain technology. The top 100 cryptos are still up more than 2,000% on average since the end of 2016, and developer blockchain activity actually accelerated in 2022.
“We expect the digital asset ecosystem’s market value to trade in line with risk assets over the course of 2023, but see the potential for token price divergence as investors shift focus from speculative trading to the development and adoption of blockchains and applications powered by tokens with utility and cash flows,” Shah says.
He says the digital asset ecosystem is still a nascent industry, and it will continue to develop in 2023.
“Bitcoin is 14 years old, but dozens of blockchains and hundreds of applications have emerged that are less than 3 years old and remain in version 1.0,” Shah says.
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